Greetings and welcome to another Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) this week.
Here is our forex technical analysis for next week’s outlook. We’re also happy to mention we, along with other Forex experts contributing to FX Street, were chosen as the Best Technical Analysis. We’ll have more about that in a future post.
EUR/USD
W1 -1.3000
M1 – 1.3500
Q1 – 1.3800
Looking at the daily chart going years back, it still appears we’re in a Contracting Triangle (CT) and we’re looking for a continuation of the upward movement. The shorter term analysis is now starting to swing that way as well, however, with NFP coming up this Friday, this could throw a loop hole into the technical side of the EUR/USD.
We did forecast the EUR/USD being bearish for NFP to potentially test the 1.3000 level by end of next week. However, even if the NFP brings the pair down, we’ll just need to let the dust settle a bit and then we should see a potential continuation of the movement upwards.
Look for an initial price target of 1.3500 and then the 1.3800 level.
Again, let’s not go fishing for a trade. Let the trade come to you and if it’s not there, don’t trade it.
GBP/USD
W1 – 1.5600
M1 – 1.5200
Q1 – 1.4800
It seems the GBP/USD may be losing steam to the upside and may start a bearish trend shortly. If the high from April 2011 can hold up, look for another potential test downward to the 1.5000 price area. There are strong trendlines both above and below our current market price and we may see a movement up to test the upper trend line during NFP. However, unless we see a strong break and breaking away of the upward movement, watch for the pair to lose steam and then start to move down to potentially test the lower trend line, giving us further indication of the longer term downward trend.
USD/JPY
W1 – 82.50
M1 – 85.00
Q1 – 92.00
It looks like the low from last year is holding on and we’re starting to get more and more confirmation as time goes on we’re looking at the start of an upward trend. Whether it’s a motive or retracement movement, we can look at the USD/CHF for a similar type movement.
In the shorter term, we may see some downward movement so be cautious of that, however, after NFP and everything settling back into place next week, we may see a start of the potential upward movment. Look for potential price targets of 85.00 and then 92.00.
USD/CHF
W1 – .9000
M1 – .9500
Q1 – .9900
Depending on how you look at it, we initially thought the USD/CHF was looking to head back down. However, after further analysis over different time frames, it looks like we may see one more move to the upside – almost testing the parity mark. Our analysis is showing a Q1 price of .9900.
Again, with NFP coming up next week, be sure to trade with caution. As stated, we’re actually showing a movement down in the shorter term after NFP.
Good luck with trading and with NFP coming up this Friday, be sure to protect your profits and watch your entries and fills during the announcement.
